Scotland Watch: What they need to qualify

After Scotland’s 3-0 loss to Brazil on Thursday, their hopes of progressing to the knockout rounds at the World Cup are out of their hands.

With eight of the 12 third-placed teams progressing, Scotland are currently 7th in the third-placed table. According to Opta, the -3 goal difference gives them just a 42% chance of progressing.

Had they lost to Brazil by two goals that would have increased their chances to 63% and a one-goal loss would have almost certainly secured their place in the knockouts at 84%.

Scotland’s chances fell further when South Africa beat South Korea. That result dropped South Korea into third place in Group A with a better goal difference.

All five teams currently below Scotland are yet to play their final group game.

How Scotland can qualify

With nine groups left, Scotland need a minimum of four of the following scenarios to unfold:

Wednesday

Group A

Czechia fail to beat Mexico and South Africa fail to beat South Korea OR Czechia fail to beat Mexico and South Africa beat South Korea by four goals or more. – South Africa’s 1-0 win saw South Korea finish third with -1 goal difference.

Thursday

Group E

Ecuador to fail to beat Germany and Curacao to fail to beat Ivory Coast OR Curacao to win by less than four goals and Ecuador fail to win.

Group F

Sweden to lose to Japan by four or more goals.

Group D

Paraguay to lose to Australia by two or more goals OR Australia to lose to Paraguay by four or more goals.

Friday

Group F

Senegal and Iraq draw OR Iraq beat Senegal by two goals or less.

Group H

Uruguay to lose to Spain.

Group G

Iran to lose to Egypt

Saturday

Group L

Croatia to lose to Ghana by three goals or more.

Group K

DR Congo to draw with Uzbekistan OR Uzbekistan to win by three goals or less.

Group J

Austria to beat Algeria by two goals or more OR Algeria to beat Austria by four goals or more.

Cover Photo: Flag of Scotland by Christoph Strassler used under license by CC BY-SA 2.0.